Projected changes in temperatures, rainfall, days with extreme heat and other weather conditions will impact crop production in the coming decades. Understanding projected changes in crop yields can help agricultural lenders identify industries and customers that will need financing support to adopt adaptation measures, such as incorporating more climate-resilient crop alternatives into rotations.
This section presents projected crop yield changes based on biophysical crop models that estimate impacts from future weather conditions. The maps below assume current technology and management practices for non-irrigated crop production. By selecting a specific county or census division, you will be able to view projected changes that take into account historical yield improvement trends.
Explore how climate impacts will affect crop yields
Corn crop yield (U.S.)
The map below displays the projected percentage change in U.S. corn yield between 2020 and the selected year. Move the slider to explore projected changes through 2050.
Soybean crop yield (U.S.)
The map below displays the projected percentage change in U.S. soybean yield between 2020 and the selected year. Move the slider to explore projected changes through 2050.
Sorghum crop yield (U.S.)
The map below displays the projected percentage change in U.S. sorghum yield between 2020 and the selected year below. Move the slider to explore projected changes through 2050.
Sorghum production represents a potential climate adaptation option in this model since it can be more heat and drought tolerant than corn in some circumstances.
Canola crop yield (Canada)
The map below displays the projected percentage change in Canada canola yield between 2020 and the selected year below. Move the slider to explore projected changes through 2050.
Wheat crop yield (Canada)
The map below displays the projected percentage change in Canada wheat yield between 2020 and the selected year below. Move the slider to explore projected changes through 2050.
Pea crop yield (Canada)
The map below displays the projected percentage change in Canada pea yield between 2020 and the selected year below. Move the slider to explore projected changes through 2050.
Pea production represents a potential climate adaptation option in this model since it is well adapted to semi-arid conditions, and provides agronomic benefits when grown in rotation with cereals and oilseeds.
Corn (U.S.) Soybeans (U.S.) Sorghum (U.S.) Canola (Canada) Wheat (Canada) Peas (Canada) in
The graph below presents projected corn yields (bushels/acre) for the selected county between 2024 and 2050.
The green line represents projected yields if technology and management practices stay as they currently are. The blue line represents projected yields adjusted for historical trends in technology, climate and management advancements. In some counties, a historical yield trend is not provided, resulting from either a lack of data or the absence of a statistically significant trend.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded areas represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of simulated yields for that yield projection, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below presents projected soybean yields (bushels/acre) for the selected county between 2024 and 2050.
The green line represents projected yields if technology and management practices stay as they currently are. The blue line represents projected yields adjusted for historical trends in technology, climate and management advancements. In some counties, a historical yield trend is not provided, resulting from either a lack of data or the absence of a statistically significant trend.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded areas represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of simulated yields for that yield projection, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below presents projected sorghum yields (bushels/acre) for the selected county between 2024 and 2050.
The green line represents projected yields if technology and management practices stay as they currently are. The blue line represents projected yields adjusted for historical trends in technology, climate and management advancements. In some counties, a historical yield trend is not provided, resulting from either a lack of data or the absence of a statistically significant trend.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded areas represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of simulated yields for that yield projection, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below presents projected canola yields (bushels/acre) for the selected census division between 2024 and 2050.
The green line represents projected yields if technology and management practices stay as they currently are. The blue line represents projected yields adjusted for historical trends in technology, climate and management advancements. In some census divisions, a historical yield trend is not provided, resulting from either a lack of data or the absence of a statistically significant trend.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded areas represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of simulated yields for that yield projection, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below presents projected wheat yields (bushels/acre) for the selected census division between 2024 and 2050.
The green line represents projected yields if technology and management practices stay as they currently are. The blue line represents projected yields adjusted for historical trends in technology, climate and management advancements. In some census divisions, a historical yield trend is not provided, resulting from either a lack of data or the absence of a statistically significant trend.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded areas represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of simulated yields for that yield projection, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below presents projected pea yields (bushels/acre) for the selected census division between 2024 and 2050.
The green line represents projected yields if technology and management practices stay as they currently are. The blue line represents projected yields adjusted for historical trends in technology, climate and management advancements. In some census divisions, a historical yield trend is not provided, resulting from either a lack of data or the absence of a statistically significant trend.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded areas represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of simulated yields for that yield projection, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
Projections
- Current system
- Current system plus historical yield trend
- The ‘Current system’ projections assume no changes in production practices and technology, whereas the ‘Current system plus historical yield trend’ projections take into account historical trends in yield improvements.