Shifting seasonal temperatures and precipitation patterns are impacting crop production and, in turn, financial outcomes on the farm. Understanding projected weather trends into the coming decades can help agricultural lenders understand the investments needed in their region to ensure farms remain resilient to changing conditions. While the climate model we used projects hundreds of weather variables that can impact crop production, here are three critical ones you can explore to understand how the climate is projected to change in the coming decades.
Explore how growing season conditions will change
Change in average daily maximum temperature compared to 2020 Change in total precipitation compared to 2020 Change in the number of days with extreme heat compared to 2020 in the U.S. and Canada in the U.S. in Canada
High temperatures contribute to crop stress, impacting crop quality and yields. The maps below present the projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) from May to August across Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota in the U.S. and in Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the U.S. county and Canada census division level.
High temperatures contribute to crop stress, impacting crop quality and yields. The maps below present the projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) from May to August across Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota in the U.S.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the U.S. county level.
High temperatures contribute to crop stress, impacting crop quality and yields. The maps below present the projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) from May to August across Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the Canada census division level.
Shifting rainfall patterns contribute to floods and droughts that impact crop yields. The maps below present projected changes in total growing season precipitation (in inches) from May to August across Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota in the U.S. and in Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the U.S. county and Canada census division level.
Shifting rainfall patterns contribute to floods and droughts that impact crop yields. The maps below present projected changes in total growing season precipitation (in inches) from May to August across Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota in the U.S.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the U.S. county level.
Shifting rainfall patterns contribute to floods and droughts that impact crop yields. The maps below present projected changes in total growing season precipitation (in inches) from May to August across Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the Canada census division level.
High temperatures disrupt biological processes and damage crops. For corn, soybean and sorghum crops in the U.S., 95°F (35°C) is a critical temperature threshold above which crop damage is likely. For canola, wheat and pea crops in Canada, the temperature threshold for crop damage is 85°F (29°C).
The maps below present projected changes in total days reaching the extreme heat thresholds across Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota in the U.S. and Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the U.S. county and Canada census division level.
High temperatures disrupt biological processes and damage crops. For corn, soybean and sorghum crops in the U.S., 95°F (35°C) is a critical temperature threshold above which crop damage is likely.
The maps below present projected changes in total days reaching the extreme heat thresholds across Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota in the U.S.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the U.S. county level.
High temperatures disrupt biological processes and damage crops. For canola, wheat and pea crops in Canada, the temperature threshold for crop damage is 85°F (29°C).
The maps below present projected changes in total days reaching the extreme heat thresholds across Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada.
Move the slider to explore projected changes between 2030 and 2050. Select a region to see projections at the Canada census division level.
Average daily maximum temperature Total precipitation Days with extreme heat in
The graph below displays annual projections of the average daily maximum temperature (°F) from May to August for the selected county or census division through 2050.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded area represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of the projections, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below displays annual projections of total growing season precipitation (in inches) from May to August for the selected county or census division through 2050.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded area represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of the projections, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.
The graph below displays annual projections of the number of days with extreme heat from May to August for the selected county or census division through 2050.
The upper and lower limits of the shaded area represent the 90th and 10th percentiles of the projections, respectively. This indicates that 80% of the projections fall within this range.